US forces have intensified precision airstrikes in Somalia, targeting al-Shabaab whose battlefield mistakes and coordination failures have left the group increasingly exposed, analysts told Salaam Times.
The strikes, coordinated with Somali government forces, have enabled the recapture of strategic towns and disrupted extremist operations.
Between August 1 and 8, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted multiple strikes near Bariire in Lower Shabelle, a contested town held by al-Shabaab since March and prioritized by Somali forces seeking stability.
On August 8, Somali federal forces and Ugandan troops under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) fully secured Bariire after more than a week of fighting, putting al-Shabaab's losses at over 100 fighters, AFP reported.
From January to mid-July, US and Somali forces carried out 51 precision strikes against terror groups, according to news outlet defenceWeb.
The al-Shabaab fighters' inability to counter aerial reconnaissance, coupled with logistical challenges and poor operational planning, has made them highly vulnerable, the analysts said.
"These weaknesses make their movements predictable, allowing their operations to be swiftly neutralized -- especially when counterterrorism forces have intelligence support and advanced technologies like drones and surveillance systems," said Nazar Muhammad Haidari, a political affairs analyst based in Belgium.
Declining network
Al-Shabaab and its parent international network, al-Qaeda, have been steadily weakening due to sustained military pressure, targeted operations, financial constraints, and reduced recruitment, the analysts said.
Years of battlefield defeats, the killing or capture of senior commanders, and an inability to hold territory have left the network reactive rather than strategic, according to Esmatullah Noori, an international affairs analyst based in London.
"Regular and precise airstrikes, poor crisis management, an inability to hold newly captured territory, and waning public influence are all signs of the network's gradual decline," he told Salaam Times.
"Tracking money transfer networks and putting pressure on financial backers has sharply curtailed al-Qaeda's equipment and logistical capabilities," he added.
Shifting balance
As extremist groups retreat from strongholds and lose local support, Somali forces have expanded control, restored governance, and advanced reconstruction programs, according to Ankara-based security analyst Muhammad Munir Ziayee.
"Recent Somali operations show how the tactical weaknesses of al-Qaeda and its affiliates have opened the door to decisive, successful counterterrorism action," he said.
"The decline of al-Shabaab has improved Somalia's internal security and sent a strong message to other extremist groups in the region."
By combining Somali ground intelligence with US drone surveillance and precision strikes, the partnership has prevented extremist groups from re-establishing training facilities and supply routes in recently secured areas, the analysts said.
