![Political leaders visit an injured man at a Quetta hospital on September 5, following a suicide bombing claimed by ISIS-K that killed 15 at a political rally last week. [Yasir Mustafa Sasoli/X]](/cnmi_st/images/2025/09/15/51928-photo_1-739_416.webp)
A suicide bombing at a political rally in Quetta, Balochistan province, last week suggests that the operational capabilities of the local affiliate of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) are declining amid sustained security pressure.
ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), the regional branch of the terrorist group, claimed responsibility for the attack on a rally organized by the Balochistan National Party (BNP) on September 2.
The bombing killed at least 15 people and wounded dozens more.
However, a senior provincial official Muhammad Hamza Shafqaat said the outcome could have been far worse if security measures had not been in place.
"This forced him to detonate the device away from the crowd," Shafqaat told reporters in Quetta on September 3.
"The attack could have been far worse if the bomber had managed to enter the main gathering," he said.
The provincial government had announced a compensation package of 1.5 million rupees ($5,300) for the families of those killed, 500,000 rupees ($1760) for each injured person, and 200,000 rupees ($707) in support for minors affected by the bombing, Shafqaat said.
Sustained crackdown
Security analysts believe the Quetta bombing reflects a strategic shift by ISIS-K.
Unable to strike heavily fortified military or police installations, the group is now targeting soft civilian gatherings -- a sign of operational weakness brought on by months of counterterrorism crackdowns.
These operations, often in co-operation with international partners, have led to the capture of senior ISIS-K operatives.
In March, Pakistani authorities arrested Muhammad Sharifullah, a senior commander linked by US officials to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing that killed 170 Afghans and 13 US service members.
Sharifullah was later handed over to US authorities.
More recently, in June, Turkish and Pakistani intelligence services arrested Ozgur Altun, a senior ISIS leader accused of directing plots across Europe.
According to the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency, Altun had been coordinating the movement of fighters from hideouts near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Degraded capabilities
These high-profile arrests have disrupted ISIS-K’s transnational networks and degraded its ability to execute sophisticated attacks.
This decline in capability is forcing a change in tactics, said Shoaib Ahmed, a Quetta-based political analyst.
"ISIS-K’s capacity for complex, high-impact attacks on security forces has been significantly curtailed," Ahmed told Salaam Times.
"As a result, the group is turning to public rallies and other soft targets to exploit security gaps and spread fear," he added.
By killing innocent civilians, ISIS-K seeks to project an image of strength and signal that it is still active, Ahmed said.
ISIS-K has a history of inflicting mass casualties on unprotected civilians, said Imran Noshad Khan, an Islamabad-based peace activist.
Khan cited the 2018 Mastung bombing, which killed more than 150 people at an election rally, a 2022 suicide bombing on a Shia mosque that killed over 60 people, and a 2023 suicide attack at a political rally in Bajaur that killed over 60 people.
"Such cowardly attacks suggest frustration within ISIS-K’s ranks after its operational capabilities were greatly degraded due to the continuous crackdown," he said.
