Reopening of Russian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif stokes unease among Afghans

MAZAR-E-SHARIF -- Russia is expanding its presence in Afghanistan under the cover of fighting the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS), but Moscow's ultimate goal is to cement its control over neighbouring ex-Soviet Central Asian countries, analysts warn.

Russian special envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov told TASS news agency on April 3 that Moscow recently reopened its consulate general in Mazar-e-Sharif.

It had suspended its work in July 2021 amid rising tensions in northern Afghanistan.

Alexey Pereverzev, who previously served as Russia's deputy ambassador to Afghanistan between 2020 and 2021, was now serving as Russia's consul general in Mazar-e-Sharif, Kabulov said.

But Afghan analysts view Russia's latest move with scepticism.

Sayed Akram Fasaeh, a Germany-based political analyst, questioned Russia's expansion of its diplomatic presence in northern Afghanistan in addition to the Russian embassy in Kabul.

"I think Russia wants to achieve its malicious goals in Afghanistan, and opening the consulate would allow it to use Afghanistan as an intelligence hub to implement its agenda," he said.

"This is really painful and worrisome for Afghanistan," he added.

Exaggerating ISIS threat to Central Asia

Balkh province, which borders Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, serves as Afghanistan's main gateway to Central Asia.

The former Soviet republics are still under the influence of Moscow but in recent years have been attempting to move out from the Kremlin's orbit.

This move towards independence has Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies worried, and observers say the Russians are trying to bring these countries back into the fold.

One way Russia is justifying its presence in Afghanistan, particularly along the norther border, is by amplifying the threat of ISIS to the region, analysts say.

For years, Putin and his loyalists have inflated the idea of militants massing by the thousands on the northern Afghan border and preparing to storm Central Asia.

For example, Putin told a virtual summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on October 15, 2021, that Russian intelligence agencies determined that about 2,000 battle-hardened ISIS militants were concentrating in northern Afghanistan, and might attempt to destabilise nearby countries through "direct expansion".

"In this regard, it is important to constantly monitor the situation on the Afghan border and be ready to counteract militants, and accordingly, to co-ordinate the work of security forces -- conducting joint special operations, if necessary," Putin said.

No other intelligence agency has suggested such a concentrated presence, Latif Nazari, an international affairs analyst based in Kabul, said at the time.

By exaggerating the menace of ISIS on Afghanistan's northern border, Russia is trying to magnify its political and security influence over countries across the region to bring them all under its control, he said.

Earlier that year, Russia held a series of joint military drills in the region, with the Russian regime citing increasing concern for the security of the Central Asian republics.

Russia is ready to ensure the security of its partners in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) -- which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said July 7, 2021.

"We will do everything, including using the capabilities of our military base on Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan, in order to prevent any aggressive claims against our allies," he said.

The 201st Military Base in Tajikistan is Russia's largest military base abroad.

Calling ISIS and other extremist groups a threat to sovereignty has a purpose, said Nazari then: the Russians were warning Central Asians that without Russian support, they would face enormous security challenges.

Serving Russia's interests

Doubts about Moscow's intentions in Afghanistan have persisted over the past two years.

Russia's presence in Afghanistan allows it to maintain its political influence in Central Asia and gather intelligence about the capabilities and operations of local armed forces, said Kabul-based Maj. Gen. (ret.) Khalil Rahman Ferotan.

"The prevailing conditions prevent regional countries from devising and implementing a more independent foreign policy ... and hinder the economic development of the region and the welfare of the people," he said.

Putin recently announced his new foreign policy strategy, he said, referring to a 42-page document that the Kremlin released on March 31.

The strategy document included a lengthy section on the "near abroad", Russia's condescending name for former Soviet republics, including Central Asia.

The document only mentions Afghanistan twice, revealing the Kremlin's preoccupation with Central Asia and indifference toward Afghanistan, even as it re-opens its consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif.

"Russia does not have enough resources to implement its agenda and expand its influence in Afghanistan, but at the same time, it is trying to maintain and strengthen its presence in Central Asia by utilising all possible means," said Ferotan.

"Afghanistan is clearly a major party in [its] game," he added.

Russia's growing interference in Afghanistan has also rekindled fears that stem from the Soviet invasion of the country in the late 1970s.

"Afghans will never forget the cruelty of the Russians during the occupation of Afghanistan," said Sharifullah Ahmadi, 32, a resident of Kunduz.

"They massacred thousands of innocent young people. Now that they want to plant their dirty feet on Afghan soil again, they definitely want to implement their sinister goals."

But Russia seeks only "to protect its own interests" by feigning concern about the security of the borders of its Central Asian neighbours, while in fact "human lives are not valuable to [Russia]", he said.

"Northern Afghanistan has a special importance to Russia as an economic and trade hub; therefore, it is trying to have more influence in the region," he added.