ISIS-K could dominate Afghanistan if left unchecked, analysts warn

KABUL -- If the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) is allowed to continue its activities unchecked, the group could soon dominate large areas of Afghanistan, analysts warn.

ISIS-K's immediate goal is to establish control within Afghanistan, using it as a base for operations beyond the country, they said.

The terrorist group's operational capabilities have increased significantly in recent years, allowing it to launch more attacks and demonstrating the group's growth, said Mohammad Rasoul Khudaidad, a political analyst in Kabul.

"If the failure to track ISIS-K's operational capabilities in Afghanistan continues, it won't be long before the group controls provinces and even the entire country," he warned.

ISIS-K views Afghanistan as a strategic stronghold for infiltrating neighboring countries and expanding its influence regionally, Khudaidad said.

With terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS entrenched in Afghanistan, he said, the country will remain a source of instability in the region.

Afghanistan is viewed as a "friendly land" for terrorist groups, partly because of a lack of will to combat these groups in many provinces, said Col. Sabghatullah Muhammadi, a former Afghan National Army (ANA) officer now based in Islamabad.

This situation has enabled terrorists to extend their reach into neighboring states, he said.

"Terrorist groups in Afghanistan, specifically ISIS-K and al-Qaeda, continue to make progress despite cultivating a low profile," said Muhammadi, who served in the ANA's Special Operations Command until mid-2021.

ISIS-K has strengthened its presence in northern Afghanistan, stepped up recruitment among Tajik and Uzbek communities and stockpiled weapons in mountainous areas, he said.

Promoting sectarian war

Along with ISIS-K's regional goals, the terrorist group continues to foment sectarian strife within Afghanistan, citizens say.

ISIS-K specifically targets Shia Muslims, particularly Hazaras, carrying out terrorist attacks against them, said Jummauddin Nazari, 50, a resident of the Dasht-e-Barchi neighborhood in Kabul.

"Unfortunately, over the past several years ... most victims of ISIS attacks in Afghanistan have been from Shia communities," he said.

"I lost two relatives to a bombing by this brutal group in Dasht-e-Barchi, Kabul, on January 7 this year," Nazari said. "The Afghan government and the international community must act quickly to confront this group."

"In recent years, ISIS-K has gradually developed its capacity to pose threats beyond Afghanistan," he added.

"ISIS's primary base is still in Afghanistan, and the group's complex attacks have heightened Afghan citizens' concerns," Nazari said.

"We fear that in the future, they may control the entirety of Afghanistan."