ISIS-K struggles to stay relevant amid declining recruitment

KABUL -- The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria's Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) is facing a significant decline in its ability to recruit new members as its online presence diminishes, according to military and security analysts.

The United Nations Security Council estimated in August 2023 that ISIS-K had between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters and family members in Afghanistan.

With its operational activities faltering, the terrorist organization is experiencing a marked decline in influence.

"The internet and social media have been ISIS-K's primary tools for deceiving young people, but the group's barbaric actions have discouraged potential recruits," Nimroz-based military analyst Hamza Baloch told Salaam Times. "Their attacks demonstrate that they adhere to no ethical or religious values."

ISIS-K has in recent months attempted to maintain relevance by claiming responsibility for lone-wolf attacks -- those carried out independently and without prior connections to the group.

Analysts suggest these claims are an attempt to project an illusion of strength and relevance in the face of diminishing support and operational setbacks.

ISIS-K has lost credibility among its supporters, and very few are willing to join the terrorist group, Baloch said.

"Although recruiting through social media and online platforms has become increasingly difficult for ISIS-K, the risk of recruiting unemployed and uneducated youth in Afghanistan and Pakistan still exists," he added.

Mounting setbacks

The group's recruitment efforts have been further hampered by successful counterterrorism operations in Europe and the United States, resulting in multiple thwarted attacks and arrests over the past year.

Such international pressure has deterred potential recruits and thwarted ISIS-K's ambitions in the West, according to Nimroz-based political analyst Abdul Saboor Nikmal.

"This year alone, while ISIS-K succeeded in carrying out attacks in Russia and Iran, many of its plots in other countries were thwarted," he told Salaam Times. "These failures have prevented the group from achieving its objectives and diminished its credibility among supporters."

ISIS-K is facing substantial challenges in recruiting new members and conducting terrorist operations, Nikmal said.

"Some ISIS-K supporters outside Afghanistan and Pakistan avoid any affiliation with the group for fear of being identified and punished," he said. "Many no longer dare to contact ISIS-K members or promote the group on social media."

A September report by Afghan Witness and the UK-based Centre for Information Resilience revealed that ISIS-K continues attempts to amplify its terrorist activities on social media in multiple languages, including Arabic, English, Pashto, Persian, Russian, Tajik, Turkish, Urdu and Uzbek, despite declining effectiveness.