KABUL -- The emergence of Somali national Abdul Qadir Mumin -- a US-designated terrorist -- as a dominant figure in the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) has triggered an exodus from the extremist group, experts say.
This is because many followers of ISIS regard Munim as illegitimate, as he has no connection to the Qurashi tribe, and is not an Arab, in a departure from the group's traditional requirements and power structure.
ISIS has in the past attempted to secure support for its leaders by claiming -- often questionably -- lineage to Prophet Mohammad, Herat-based political analyst and university professor Abdul Karim Sekandari told Salaam Times.
"This claim attracted emotional and religiously driven youth to ISIS ranks," he said, but as Mumin has steadily expanded his influence within the group's power structure, many are now distancing themselves from the group.
By abandoning its foundational philosophy of Arab leadership, Sekandari said, "the current leadership has pushed ISIS to the brink."
ISIS's core has become significantly weakened, he added.
Leadership crisis deepens
The exodus of ISIS followers has accelerated as the group's leadership vacuum becomes more apparent, analysts say.
Following the elimination of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi in Syria in 2023, ISIS attempted to maintain continuity by declaring Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi as its fifth leader.
But analysts question Abu Hafs al-Qurashi's existence, particularly as Mumin -- believed to be running ISIS's general directorate of provinces from Somali -- expands his influence in Africa.
The rising prominence of an African commander, despite the officially announced Arab leader, reflects deep divisions within ISIS, Nimroz-based military analyst Hamza Baloch told Salaam Times.
"Different branches of ISIS in various countries are pursuing their own interests and are trying to maintain independent leadership," he said.
"Recently, ISIS has grown more in African nations, which is why an African figure has emerged as the senior leader of the group."
Loss of cohesion
This shift reveals how ISIS prioritizes operational power over its claimed religious authenticity.
"Although the ideology of all ISIS branches involves bloodshed and killing, they no longer share common goals or accept unified leadership," Baloch said.
"ISIS has splintered across various countries, losing its former cohesion."
This splintering mirrors ISIS's own origins, according to Nimroz-based political analyst Abdul Saboor Nikmal.
"ISIS separated from al-Qaeda in 2014 and became an independent terrorist group due to dissatisfaction with al-Qaeda's failed leadership in the Middle East," he told Salaam Times.
"Now, a decade later, ISIS faces the same fate -- its leadership has lost control over all its branches."
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