Extremist groups exploit resource crises to expand influence: analysts

Al-Qaeda exploits conflicts over natural resources to expand influence in rural Afghanistan and parts of Africa where governance remains weak.

In areas where competition over water, farmland and grazing land has intensified, and state presence is limited, the group exploits existing vacuums.

The group typically intervenes when disputes peak and communities face severe shortages and mounting social and economic pressures.

In Afghanistan, similar patterns emerge where weak state structures and political vacuums create opportunities for indirect intervention in local disputes.

In these conditions, it presents itself as a mediator, while pursuing long-term influence and gradual control over critical resources.

Al-Qaeda deliberately uses local conflicts to gain influence, said Muhammad Hanif Zahedi, a security expert based in Spain.

"The group initially builds a degree of trust among the population to strengthen its position, but later, by intervening in resource distribution, it reshapes local structures in its favor," he said.

He warned that this approach fails to resolve crises and often intensifies disputes while increasing overall instability.

Mediation as a tactical tool

Although al-Qaeda portrays itself as a force for justice or stability, its record shows it prioritizes its own interests over local welfare.

Once influence is consolidated, access to essential resources becomes restricted and is redirected to finance operations and strengthen internal power structures.

As a result, communities experience economic pressure, insecurity and prolonged instability, significantly disrupting their daily lives and local economic systems.

Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups use mediation as a tactical tool, said Mirwais Hakimi, a counter-terrorism researcher based in Ankara, Türkiye.

"These groups initially enter with claims of resolving disputes, but once their presence is established, they take control of resources and economic routes and use them to finance themselves," he told Salaam Times.

Such groups often fail to honor commitments and frequently pressure the communities they claim to support, he said.

Lasting consequences

Evidence from Mali illustrates this repeated pattern across multiple contexts and time periods involving resource-based conflicts and economic exploitation.

In the Mopti region between 2019 and 2020, affiliated groups exploited clashes between herders and farmers to establish influence.

They later imposed taxes on grazing lands and livestock routes, effectively controlling resources and generating revenue at the expense of local populations.

In northern Mali between 2012 and 2013, these groups seized key areas and controlled trade routes and local resources.

This control generated significant income while severely damaging local economies and undermining the livelihoods of affected communities.

In Yemen, in the city of Mukalla in Hadramaut province between 2015 and 2016, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula controlled key economic infrastructure.

By managing port operations and trade flows, the group generated substantial financial resources that were largely redirected toward military activities.

This control increased economic pressure, heightened insecurity and imposed severe restrictions on civilians living in affected areas.