Rivalry intensifies between ISIS-K, al-Qaeda for influence in Afghanistan

KABUL – Competition for influence in Afghanistan between the Khorasan branch of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS-K) and al-Qaeda has intensified as each jockeys for position in the international arena, analysts said.

Approximately 4,000 ISIS-K members were released from Afghan prisons in August 2021, bolstering the extremist group and making it a primary regional rival to al-Qaeda, said France-based political analyst Ghulam Hossein Tawana.

"Even though it's younger than al-Qaeda, ISIS-K's recent complex attacks in Iran and Russia have heightened concerns about the threat of international terrorism," Tawana said.

"ISIS-K, alongside al-Qaeda, is vying for recognition," he said, adding that the group is "seeking global attention and has intensified its destructive activities in Afghanistan."

"ISIS-K is now more focused on threats beyond Afghanistan’s borders, aspiring to become a major international terrorist group in the coming decade, similar to al-Qaeda before 2001," he said.

Al-Qaeda resurgence

According to a recent United Nations report, al-Qaeda is attempting to rebuild its operational capabilities in Afghanistan.

Despite losing their leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in 2022, senior members of al-Qaeda are active as trainers and advisers in Afghanistan, said Canada-based Afghan political analyst Mohammad Zaman Seyal.

Al-Qaeda has been collaborating with other extremist groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), he said.

Many of these groups operate under al-Qaeda's guidance, Seyal said, noting that "these connections are deepening."

"Al-Qaeda, by being present in key Afghan institutions, is focusing on its strategic objectives," he said, pointing out that the network's strategic goals "undoubtedly focus on global 'jihad.'"

The group and its allies could use Afghanistan "as a command and control center someday," he said.

"Al-Qaeda, ISIS and other terrorist groups are exploiting the favorable conditions in Afghanistan to compete against each other," he said.

Heightened terror threat

The global threat to the region from within Afghanistan has increased, Kabul resident Sayed Nasim Moradi, 45, told Salaam Times.

"Unfortunately, terrorist groups are exploiting the unstable situation in Afghanistan and are trying to expand their influence both inside and outside the country," Moradi said.

"Our information shows that these groups are mainly active in the east, north and northeast of Afghanistan," he added.

Since August 2021, ISIS-K has attacked different parts of the country, and Afghan citizens still fear potential terrorist acts, Kabul resident Karimullah Mosleh, 38, told Salaam Times.

"Many people avoid mosques and gatherings out of fear of ISIS-K, as this group has instilled terror," he said.