KABUL -- As the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) grapples with significant setbacks in the Middle East and Afghanistan, its dream of establishing a "caliphate" is increasingly far-fetched, according to regional security experts.
Depleted financial and military resources and a drop in public support have eroded the group's influence and territorial control, marking a dramatic reversal for ISIS and its grandiose plans to establish a state.
Internal leadership crises, coupled with sustained counterterrorism efforts by local and international forces, have left the group a shadow of its former self.
"ISIS is struggling to recruit new members and can no longer revive the 'caliphate'," said France-based global affairs researcher Mohammad Ali Tawana.
"This has led to a loss of financial and military resources, weakening the group significantly," he told Salaam Times.
Declining public support has proven particularly damaging.
"ISIS traditionally relied on the support and cooperation of people in the areas it controlled," Tawana said. "But over time, due to its oppression, corruption and brutal violence, this support has diminished."
Weakened leadership
"ISIS relied on a pyramid-like structure that required unified leadership," Germany-based political analyst Manochehr Olawi told Salaam Times.
But the assassination of numerous senior ISIS leaders, including the group's founder, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in 2019, has thrown the group into disarray.
"After the death of al-Baghdadi and other key leaders, the group was unable to find effective successors, leading to management issues and internal conflicts," Olawi said.
The group's financial situation has deteriorated significantly, while international sanctions on its financial networks have further restricted its access to funding.
"At its peak, ISIS benefited from substantial revenues generated from oil, extortion and state resources," Olawi said. "But the loss of territories containing oil reserves significantly reduced the group's economic capabilities."
In Afghanistan, where the group's Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) has attempted to establish a presence, the group faces similar challenges.
ISIS-K struggles with weakened leadership and recruitment difficulties, according to Islamabad-based political researcher Mohammad Halim Tawhidi.
"While the group previously relied on income from mineral extraction and extortion, it is now struggling financially due to reduced control over resources and territories," Tawhidi told Salaam Times.
"The lack of strong leadership and internal divisions have prevented the group from organizing effectively and achieving its objectives," he said.
"Many senior ISIS commanders have been killed or captured, leaving the group without strategic leadership," he added.
"Although ISIS remains a threat, available evidence suggests that the group no longer possesses the capacity to become a global menace as it once did."
A religious tradition states that power may remain with a non-believer, but not with an oppressor. The hands of ISIS members are stained with the blood of innocent people. This is why these wicked individuals have faced challenges in leadership and in gaining public support. The wicked ISIS group, which is backed by Pakistan's intelligence agencies, bombed young men, elderly people, and children in the Shinwar district of Nangarhar and beheaded civilians. This is why God has humiliated them, and they will continue to face further disgrace.
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