Al-Qaeda's pivot to Africa shows it favors opportunism over principles

With its leadership now based in Shia-majority Iran and its Africa affiliates wielding outsized influence, al-Qaeda is moving away from its core ideology and its roots in Afghanistan, intelligence assessments and security analysts say.

As al-Qaeda loses influence in its traditional strongholds in Afghanistan and the Middle East, its hyper-violent Africa affiliates are active and expanding, shifting the group's geographical nexus and demonstrating its essential opportunism.

The group's most prominent Africa affiliates are Somalia-based al-Shabaab and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has exploited political instability and local grievances to establish a presence in the Sahel.

Al-Qaeda's African affiliates operate with increasing autonomy from the group's central leadership in Iran, where de facto leader Saif al Adel is reportedly based.

The group has cast aside its proclaimed principles, security analysts told Salaam Times, describing al-Qaeda's presence in Iran and geographical shift to Africa as an opportunistic adaptation rather than a strategic choice.

They note that the group seeks to exploit areas with governance challenges after being largely expelled from its traditional strongholds in Afghanistan and the Middle East through sustained counterterrorism efforts.

Violent activities and exploitation

Al-Qaeda affiliates in Africa have grabbed global attention through their violent actions and illegal activities, as they prey on vulnerable populations.

Al-Shabaab generates an estimated $100 million annually through systematic extortion of local businesses and communities, according to the 2024 National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment.

In Somalia, al-Shabaab operates a network of criminal enterprises which include sham charities and weapons trafficking between Yemen and Somalia, a US Treasury investigation revealed in 2022.

A subsequent 2023 investigation uncovered an illegal charcoal smuggling operation. Charcoal smuggling, which provides a key source of revenue for al-Shabaab, violates United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.

In central Mali, JNIM demands civilians either accept its harsh interpretation of Islamic law, relocate, or face consequences, said Jared Thompson, a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The group enforces its presence by banning traditional celebrations, imposing unauthorized taxes, and mandating attendance at religious gatherings.

JNIM's crimes include the 2021 abduction of French journalist Olivier Dubois and the 2016 capture of French humanitarian worker Sophie Petronin.

Yet as al-Qaeda's Africa affiliates continue to gain prominence, signs of resistance to the group are emerging across the continent.

The Somali government's 2023 offensive against al-Shabaab is just one clear sign of increasing opposition to the group's presence.