Al-Qaeda raises head in Africa as power fades in Afghanistan, Middle East

As al-Qaeda's historic power base collapses in Afghanistan and support for the group dwindles in the Middle East, and its leaders are killed off one by one, the extremist group is looking to its African affiliates for survival and legitimacy.

The group has struggled to maintain a presence in Afghanistan, where it now counts "fewer than a dozen core members" and is operating at "a historical low point," according to US intelligence reports released in September 2023.

These detail the group's loss of leadership, cohesion, rank-and-file commitment and an accommodating local environment, and amount to "an obituary for al-Qaeda," according to an analysis published in the Washington Post.

The group's presence in Afghanistan now resembles more of "a nursing home for al-Qaeda seniors" than an operational base, the report said.

A leadership vacuum has further weakened the group.

Following the death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a US drone strike on his residence in Kabul, the group has failed to officially name a successor.

While Saif al-Adel has emerged as the de facto emir, his residence in Iran has sparked controversy within and outside the group, and it is unclear how much influence or authority he wields.

Collapse in the Middle East

The latest blow to al-Qaeda came in January when its Syria affiliate, Hurras al-Deen, announced its dissolution following orders from al-Qaeda's "general command," AFP reported.

Hurras al-Deen dissolved to avoid conflict with former al-Qaeda affiliate Tahrir al-Sham, which split from the group in 2016 and now has demanded all armed groups in Syria disband, per the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

US strikes have decimated Hurras al-Deen's leadership in Syria, killing senior official Muhammad Salah al-Zabir in January, Marwan Bassam Abd-al-Rauf in September, and Abu Abdul Rahman al-Makki in August.

A former al-Qaeda element who defected provided insight into the group's weakening state.

"Al-Qaeda has lost the ability to communicate with its cells, smuggle individuals to form new cells, recruit members in distant countries, and finance those sides," the defector told Asharq al-Awsat in 2023.

"Al-Qaeda's branches have become consumed by local concerns," the defector said, adding that "al-Qaeda in Yemen has unimaginable problems and can barely organize work inside Yemen; its concern now is survival."

This has forced al-Qaeda to look to African affiliates, including violent extremist groups like al-Shabaab and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in Somalia and the Sahel, to maintain its reputation and ensure its survival.

Far from its former heartland in Afghanistan-Pakistan, al-Qaeda's hyper-violent African affiliates now attempt to provide legitimacy to the group's weakened core, according to intelligence assessments.