Terrorism

Al-Qaeda abandons its core principles as it grapples with leadership crisis

By Emran

US Special Forces tracked and eliminated al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in this hideout in Pakistan's hill city of Abbottabad on May 2, 2011. [Aamir Qureshi/AFP]

US Special Forces tracked and eliminated al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in this hideout in Pakistan's hill city of Abbottabad on May 2, 2011. [Aamir Qureshi/AFP]

KABUL -- Since the death of its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a July 2022 US drone strike in Kabul, al-Qaeda has been grappling with a leadership crisis that has forced it to abandon its founding principles to ensure its survival.

While reports indicate Iran-based Saif al-Adel has assumed leadership of the group, al-Qaeda has not officially confirmed this transition -- a silence that analysts say reflects its weakened state.

"Over the past few years, many of al-Qaeda's leaders and key figures have been eliminated in US operations," Herat-based political analyst Abdul Qadir Faizi told Salaam Times.

"US military pressure has crippled al-Qaeda," he added, noting that with al-Zawahiri's death, "al-Qaeda has become virtually leaderless."

"While al-Qaeda remains active in Afghanistan, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and Africa, it lacks strong leadership to manage the network," Faizi said.

The primary threat it poses in Afghanistan emanates from the "safe havens" it has carved out there and from its "ties to other terrorist groups," he said.

Al-Qaeda's decline is evidenced by al-Adel's presence in Shia-majority Iran -- a paradoxical alignment analysts view as a deviation from al-Qaeda's ideology.

"The leadership of al-Qaeda has become so weakened and incapable that it has accepted living under the banner of its longtime enemy, Iran," Herat-based political analyst Fawad Akbari told Salaam Times.

"The collaboration of al-Qaeda's leaders with the Iranian regime undoubtedly benefits Iran, which exploits this weakened leadership," he said.

Al-Adel's past imprisonment by the Iranian regime and current reliance on this same regime for protection has severely damaged the group's reputation.

Unreliable leaders

"Due to their weakness and seeking refuge in Iran, al-Qaeda's leaders have become highly unreliable," Akbari said. "Even within their own ranks, they have lost credibility and now prefer to live in hiding."

Al-Qaeda leaders are unable to operate openly out of fear they will be targeted by US airstrikes, he added.

The group increasingly depends on criminal enterprises such as arms smuggling and extortion to fund its operations.

It also has been exploiting Afghanistan's mineral resources and impoverished population, according to intelligence reports.

"For the leadership of al-Qaeda, religious values and principles hold no significance," said Afghan activist Sayed Ashraf Sadaat, who is now based in Sweden.

"Al-Qaeda leaders are willing to go to any lengths to acquire money and sustain their terrorist network," he said. "Because of their un-Islamic behavior, al-Qaeda has lost credibility even among extremist Islamic groups."

Al-Qaeda either conducts attacks directly or relies on groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to target other Muslims, he added, noting that the group's leadership uses religion purely as a tool to further their personal interests.

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Shabir Ahmad

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