Coalition strikes, internal rifts contributed to demise of al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate

KABUL -- The dissolution of Hurras al-Deen, al-Qaeda's last significant affiliate in Syria, demonstrates how sustained military pressure combined with internal ideological divisions can sink extremist groups, security analysts said.

Hurras al-Deen, which boasted 2,500 fighters at its peak, emerged in February 2018 as al-Qaeda attempted to rebuild influence in Syria after al-Nusra Front publicly broke ties with it to form Tahrir al-Sham.

US military operations that targeted Hurras al-Deen's leadership throughout 2024 are seen as a factor in the group's January 28 decision to disband.

In September, a US strike killed senior leader Marwan Bassam Abd-al-Rauf and eight other members of the group, with another top-tier leader, Shura Council head Abu-Abd al-Rahman al-Makki, killed in a US strike in August.

Coalition forces have continued to go after the group, with a US strike on February 21 killing "senior facilitator" Wasim Tahsin Bayraqdar in northwest Syria -- the third such operation in less than a month.

"Studies indicate the group primarily operated in northwestern Syria, particularly in Idlib province, focusing on attacks against Syrian government forces and rival factions," said Spain-based Middle East analyst Abdul Khalil Mostafawi.

While Hurras al-Deen initially attracted pledges from sixteen small armed factions, its more hardline ideology and isolation from other armed groups made it increasingly vulnerable, regional analysts said.

Weakening extremist groups

Hurras al-Deen claimed more than 200 attacks across Syria before its dissolution, according to the Counter Extremism Project.

Hurras al-Deen was seen as a “serious threat” from the outset, France-based terrorism analyst Mohammad Yaqub Hosseini told Salaam Times.

"Precise airstrikes targeting the group's leadership played a crucial role in weakening it," he said.

The group's exploitation of Islamic teachings to justify violence ultimately led many fighters to abandon its ranks, leaving it operationally crippled.

"The experience of groups like Hurras al-Deen shows that sustained military pressure and precise intelligence operations can successfully weaken extremist groups," said Türkiye-based Afghan political analyst Abdul Wasay Niazi.

Hurras al-Deen's dissolution shows how such groups fail when they lose popular support while facing coordinated security responses.

By eliminating terrorist hideouts in Syria, the international coalition has proven the effectiveness of combating extremist groups, Kabul-based civil society activist Samim Rashidi told Salaam Times.

"Al-Qaeda and the so-called 'Islamic State of Iraq and Syria' are criminal entities that threaten humanity," he added, noting that coordinated global action can free people from the threat posed by such groups.

Hurras al-Deen's dissolution marks another significant setback for al-Qaeda's regional network, demonstrating how extremist groups ultimately self-destruct when faced with sustained military pressure, the analysts said.