As al-Qaeda splinters and disperses, it loses strength, followers

ISLAMABAD -- In its heyday as the "world's most feared terrorist group," al-Qaeda was a monolithic organization with global appeal for those who subscribed to a hardline extremist ideology, analysts told Salaam Times.

But all that has changed since al-Qaeda was turfed out of its former strongholds and forced to find new bases of operation, they said. As it splintered into smaller, weaker factions and dispersed, the group has lost its cohesion and identity.

In addition to the change in al-Qaeda's physical footprint -- many small groups in different locations instead of one centralized operation center -- the group's ideological influence has collapsed dramatically, the analysts said.

Many of today's youth see it as a relic of the past, regarding it as a defeated group that brought only destruction to Muslim communities.

"The deaths of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, and failure to cultivate influential successors, devastated al-Qaeda's ideological appeal," said Islamabad-based author Fakhar Kakakhel, who writes about violent extremist movements.

While Egyptian-born Saif al-Adel is believed to be the group's current leader, he is based out of necessity in Shia-majority Iran, which has crippled his authority and ability to inspire followers.

As the group battles its fragmentation and decline, it has engaged in a flurry of propaganda efforts. But its calls for action generate little response on extremist forums and social media channels, according to the analysts.

Scattered cells, diminished influence

In South Asia, where al-Qaeda once commanded significant support, al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) now maintains a few hundred fighters across Bangladesh, India, Burma and Pakistan, the analysts said.

These operate as scattered cells rather than a coherent force.

"Enhanced intelligence-sharing and elimination of key operatives have crippled al-Qaeda's ability to function as a unified global force," a London-based western counterterrorism official told Salaam Times.

AQIS faced a blow in India when authorities arrested its Jharkhand state leader Ishtiaq Ahmed in August 2024.

Ahmed reportedly ran terrorist training facilities and engaged in real estate fraud to fund operations, per the Counter Extremism Project.

In Syria, US forces have dismantled al-Qaeda affiliate Hurras al-Deen, killing key figures like Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay; while in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula conducts sporadic attacks despite weakened capabilities.

Al-Qaeda's African affiliates also are facing significant challenges, as countries such as Morocco and Somalia mount successful counterterrorism operations against them.

In addition to security crackdowns, groups like al-Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin face heavy losses from conflicts with extremist rivals such as the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) Sahel Province.