ISIS shifts focus to Africa as Middle East influence wanes

In a strategic realignment following successive defeats in the Middle East, the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS) has shifted its media operations and military activities to Africa, analysts told Salaam Times.

During its peak, ISIS controlled significant portions of Syria and Iraq, before losing key cities including al-Raqa and Mosul, said London-based political analyst Sayed Hossein Safi.

"ISIS is now producing most of its propaganda based on operations in Africa," he told Salaam Times.

The group's recent media content, including videos, images, statements and online magazines, now predominantly features its affiliates' operations in Mali, Niger, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

"This shows a geographic shift in activity, a focus on recruitment in Africa, and the use of media to assert the group’s continued existence," Safi said.

"Though the group has never enjoyed sustained local support anywhere, it is now trying to exploit security vacuums, weak governments and local grievances in several African nations to reestablish itself," he added.

The strategic pivot has triggered intensified counter-terrorism efforts, with the United States, France and various African nations launching joint operations ranging from precision drone strikes to intelligence support for local militaries.

These have succeeded in severely compromising the group's command structure, with many leaders killed or isolated from local networks, Canada-based political analyst Mohammad Zaman Sial told Salaam Times.

"Intense pressure in Iraq and Syria, the collapse of centralized command, and failure to establish a functioning state have stripped ISIS of its 'caliphate' image," he said.

"ISIS has now become a decentralized group with semi-autonomous branches," Sial said. "The shift toward Africa is a natural response to the unprecedented pressure from Western coalitions and local forces."

Geographic shift

"ISIS's central command structure has completely collapsed following the killing of key leaders and the breakdown of communication lines," Tehran-based political analyst Muhaiuddin Ahmadi told Salaam Times.

"Many local cells either lack clear loyalty to the leadership or operate independently," he said.

Local populations across Africa have largely rejected ISIS's presence, often becoming primary victims of the group's violence, which has limited its expansion in these regions, he added.

Yet recent attacks underscore the group's deadly presence.

In January, ISIS claimed an attack in Nigeria that killed over 20 soldiers, while in May, ISIS-linked militants launched a series of deadly attacks on Mozambique's Niassa wildlife reserve, one of Africa's largest protected areas.

The assaults left at least 10 people dead, including anti-poaching scouts and soldiers, with two victims beheaded at a safari camp, the Guardian reported.

The violence forced the displacement of approximately 2,000 villagers and led to the suspension of conservation activities in the reserve.