KABUL -- Al-Qaeda's relative silence in recent years is a sign that the group is weakening on the ground and failing in its online propaganda efforts, according to multiple international assessments.
In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda can claim no more than 60 members, most of whom are senior figures located in Kabul, Kandahar, Helmand and Kunar, a 2023 United Nations (UN) Security Council report found.
In June, a UN sanctions monitoring team reported that al-Qaeda lacks the capacity to conduct large-scale external operations.
The downturn accelerated after the death of former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in 2022.
"Al-Zawahiri's death had a major impact on the propaganda production of the al-Qaeda 'core', and has considerably reduced its media presence to perceived key events," a 2024 Europol study noted.
This diminished media presence reflects a deeper ideological crisis within the group, according to regional experts.
'No agenda or values'
"Al-Qaeda has no agenda or values to fight for. Its previous goals and values, which it used to deceive Muslims, no longer carry any weight within Islamic communities," Herat-based political analyst Jawad Binesh told Salaam Times.
"All of al-Qaeda's activities worldwide are reduced to illegal trades and criminal activities. Wherever it operates, the group is involved in arms trafficking, extortion, assassinations and mafia activities," he said.
The group's survival has become the primary concern for remaining leaders, according to Mohammad Khalil Noori, a retired Afghan colonel in Herat.
"The masterminds and central leadership of al-Qaeda have been eliminated in recent years in military operations by US-led coalition forces," Noori told Salaam Times.
"Al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in Yemen, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and even Africa."
The retreat of the current leader to Iran follows years of sustained military pressure and reflects the group's deep security fears, he said.
Deepening isolation
"Al-Qaeda has lost credibility and been marginalized not only among communities and its supporters but also among other terrorist groups," Herat-based political analyst Abdul Qader Kamel told Salaam Times.
In a bid to remain relevant, it has provided financial support to other extremist groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
"One could say that al-Qaeda is trying to buy status and credibility by paying money to terrorist groups, but so far, these efforts have been fruitless," Kamel said.
The group's isolation continues to deepen, Herat-based university professor Abdul Karim Nazari told Salaam Times.
"Al-Qaeda, as an extremist terrorist group with a dark history, is not accepted by anyone," he said. "We see that some branches of al-Qaeda in the Middle East have separated from the main body."
The group's leaders are focused on making money through criminal means, he said, and are "completely rejected."
((The third and final part of the article))) Considering all these points and looking at the history, the best and most useful allies for Afghanistan in this situation are the United States and the European Union. The United States has not only helped Afghanistan rebuild and prosper economically during the twenty years of the republic, but also it has been helping Afghanistan with tens of millions of dollars every month during the current government. At the same time, Afghanistan, in turn, can also prove as the best friend of the United States in the region. Afghans are not only brave, but also committed people. They stand by their friend until the death. In addition, Afghanistan has vast plains and flat lands, and workers' wages are as low as in China. American companies can start their activities in Afghanistan, which will benefit both countries. I do not think of being a slave, but this world is a world of means and every country needs the help of another country. As a free Afghan, I ask the current and future governments of Afghanistan even to allow NATO to have a base in Afghanistan. This way, Afghanistan would not only be able to receive financial and military assistance from NATO, but also it would lead to the resumption of economic assistance and reconstruction programs from the United States and European countries to Afghanistan. Long live the friendship between Afghanistan and the United States
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(((Part 2 of my writing))) Pakistan is so hypocrite that even when the grapes, pomegranates, watermelons and melons’ season arrives in Afghanistan, it [Pakistan] closes the gates built on the Durand Line and leave the Afghan fruits and vegetables to rot in the fields and gardens. What benefit will we get from such a neighbor? Our other neighbor is Iran. For decades, Iran has been fueling Shia and Sunni religious differences and ethnic conflicts between Hazara, Pashtun and Tajik ethnic groups in Afghanistan. And these differences are causing devastation in Afghanistan. On one hand, it makes Shia Afghans fight against the Sunni Afghans, on the other hand, it is sending Afghan Hazaras to fight in Syria and Iraq, and when it was time to flee in Syria, they [Iran] boarded their own soldiers on planes, but they left the Shia and Hazara soldiers, including the Fatemiyoun Division, on the ground and did not give them any way to escape. God knows what fate they would have faced. The other reliance of Afghanistan is Russia. Russia has been severely weakened economically due to its invasion of Ukraine. If we look at the history, Afghanistan was also a victim of Russian aggression and oppression, and Ukraine was also a victim of Russian aggression and oppression. Therefore, Afghanistan cannot receive any special assistance from Russia. China is in third place. Not only does China not provide free assistance, but trading with this country also comes with risks. I read in the news that Chin
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It is clear that extremist networks such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Zionism... will fail. Because their ideology and beliefs are anti-human. Any group that considers killing a human being as a normal affair is rejected. What is important to us is the future of our beloved country Afghanistan which has been ruined due to external and internal extremism and Afghans have suffered a lot of problems. Now we must think about the things that we need after the collapse and destruction of extremist groups in the region and our country to stand back on its own feet. Considering the realities of the present era, Afghanistan has no choice but to align with the United States. This is not just a mere claim, but a reality and there are reasons for it. You see, there are currently four major powers in the world that Afghanistan can rely on; the United States, China and Russia. In addition to the United States, NATO member countries are also included in this bloc. NATO includes countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, Norway, Poland, etc. Since Afghanistan is an economically poor country, it will have to rely on a superpower for at least 50 years. As a first step, we can work with our neighboring countries. For example, we can rely on Pakistan and Iran, but the truth is that Pakistan itself is facing economic, security and political challenges that are unprecedented in its 80-year long history. Another point is that the main factor in the current destruction of our country is the
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The United States is the sponsor and founder of all international terrorist networks in the world, which it abuses to destabilize the region and the world.
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