Inside al-Qaeda, lack of central authority spawns competing factions, crime

KABUL -- Al-Qaeda's protracted leadership crisis has transformed the group into a network of competing factions where criminal enterprises increasingly overshadow ideological goals, according to regional security experts.

The lack of central authority following the July 2022 death of Ayman al-Zawahiri has spawned autonomous cells, with former commanders establishing independent operations, said Herat-based political analyst Fazl Haq Wahid.

"Senior al-Qaeda members are more focused on trafficking arms and illicit goods for personal gain and power than on following the group's ideology," he told Salaam Times.

Al-Qaeda's centralized structure, including its financial distribution mechanisms, have collapsed, while the group's efforts at rebuilding central leadership have repeatedly failed due to deep-rooted distrust among regional commanders.

"Each high-ranking al-Qaeda figure seeks greater power and influence, and they do not trust one another," Wahid said. "This atmosphere of suspicion has prevented them from agreeing on a new leader."

The group's disintegration has created ripple effects across its entire network, Herat-based university professor Mohammad Afzal Karimi told Salaam Times.

Senior members scattered across different countries and regions are pursuing their own power bases and financial interests, he explained.

Beyond organizational fragmentation, the group is experiencing a breakdown of operational capacity, Karimi said.

He noted that more than two years have passed since al-Zawahiri's death without an official statement appointing Saif al-Adel as successor.

This "speaks volumes," he said, and shows "al-Adel is not accepted by the group's members."

'Irreversible damage'

As al-Qaeda collapses from the inside, sustained external pressure has accelerated the group's disintegration.

"The elimination of its founders and key figures in US operations has created irreversible damage," Herat-based political analyst Abdul Basir Nazami told Salaam Times.

"Al-Qaeda will never recover its former strength," he said.

The group today is a shadow of its former self, with its once-unified front now splintered into separate criminal enterprises, according to security experts.

"Al-Qaeda figures who are still alive simply don't command the respect or loyalty needed to maintain organizational cohesion," Italy-based Afghan military analyst Mohammad Naim Ghayur told Salaam Times.

"The fact that the purported leader of al-Qaeda has sought refuge in Iran out of fear of US forces is in itself a sign of his weakness and cowardice," he said.