ISIS remnants in Syria further threatened by US-Syria political thaw

Fresh cooperation between the United States and Syria's interim leadership does not bode well for the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS), which has traditionally relied on political turmoil to thrive.

During a meeting in Riyadh on May 15, US President Donald Trump announced the United States would lift sanctions on Syria.

Syrian interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa described the move as "a historic and courageous decision" that "lays the foundations for stability in the region."

On May 20, the European Union followed suit, saying it also would remove economic restrictions.

The thaw creates a new platform for strategic counterterrorism cooperation, analysts told Salaam Times, noting that this could seal the fate of ISIS in Syria.

"The new policy aims to achieve stability and control terrorism in Syria through dialogue and cooperation," Italy-based military analyst Muhammad Naim Ghayur told Salaam Times.

"Financial and intelligence support for Syria’s new government could make counterterrorism efforts more effective and prevent ISIS from regrouping," he said.

The agreement between Syria's interim government and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who have fought ISIS for years in northeastern Syria, presents another obstacle for ISIS, Ghayur said.

"These political advances have increased military pressure on ISIS and will contribute to its eradication in Syria," he said.

Al-Sharaa has pointedly excluded ISIS from the state building process and from any future armed force in Syria.

Intelligence cooperation between Washington and Damascus could enable more precise targeting of ISIS operatives while severing the group's financial and recruitment networks, Ghayur said.

Efforts to uproot ISIS

Since its first leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi blew himself up in a tunnel in Syria, ISIS has been in a downward spiral, appointing ever more obscure and short-lived leaders.

Al-Baghdadi's death plunged the group into ideological confusion and leadership turmoil, Herat-based political analyst Abdul Basir Nezami told Salaam Times.

"After al-Baghdadi, the new leaders of ISIS did not command respect from all members of the group," Nezami said. "This caused fragmentation within ISIS, even leading to internal rebellions and splintering."

Kabul university professor Khalil Ahmad Hadid pointed to the ongoing US military presence in Syria, the US partnership with Iraqi and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the US leadership of the international coalition to defeat ISIS.

"Without US military intervention, containing ISIS in Iraq and Syria would have been impossible," he told Salaam Times.

"The renewed ties between the US and Syria’s new government mark the beginning of the final phase in the fight against ISIS remnants in Syria," Hadid said. "This new cooperation will uproot ISIS completely."